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the receipts

i watch culture. then i trade it.

20+ years of spotting signals before they hit consensus. from subway headphones to onchain identity.

012003

i looked around the subway in 2003 and everyone had white headphones in their ears. apple had something.

bought $20 calls at $0.62 each.

sold at $49/ea. 79x return.

022005

my most stylish girlfriends all started wearing the same jeans. true religion. nobody on wall street was talking about it yet.

bought equity and stock.

acquired at ~$28/share.

032006

the housing market felt wrong. everyone was getting mortgages they couldn’t afford. countrywide was the biggest lender.

shorted via puts, december 2006.

countrywide imploded august 2007.

042007

bear stearns was next. the exposure was obvious if you were paying attention.

shorted at ~$100.

rode it to zero.

052008

as lehman brothers was collapsing, everyone was panicking. i was buying.

bought silver wheaton at ~$2/share.

silver wheaton ran to $40+.

062010

visited china. starbucks was everywhere. packed locations, massive expansion. the stock didn’t reflect what i saw on the ground.

bought starbucks equity.

stock 4x’d over the next few years.

072012

facebook ipo’d at $38 and the street hated it. but i saw the youth. growth was exploding and the market was discounting it. the stock hit ~$18.

bought near the post-ipo lows.

facebook became meta. one of the greatest runs in market history.

082014

autonomous driving would be led by vision systems, not lidar. mobileye was winning business from tesla and every major automaker. the thesis was clear.

bought mobileye. ipo’d at $25.

acquired by intel at $63.54/share — $15.3B deal.

092020

late january. early reports out of wuhan. human-to-human transmission confirmed. the market hadn’t moved yet, but the signal was there.

initiated short positions, late january 2020.

covered a few days early — but the s&p dropped 34% by march.

102021

digital identity was about to matter. ownership was moving onchain. i paid 140 eth for a jpeg. the tweet went viral.

cryptopunk #8219. 140 eth.

the trade that defined a movement.

ai is the biggest opportunity i've seen in my career. bigger than crypto. bigger than the gfc.

that's where i'm focused now. and that's what the early signal is about.

what's in the early signal

cultural observations before they hit consensus

the same pattern recognition that spotted apple in 2003 and shorted countrywide in 2006, applied to what’s happening right now.

trade ideas with real thesis

not tips. not signals from an algo. observations from the real world, connected to market opportunity, with the reasoning laid out.

ai tools and business opportunities

what’s actually working in ai right now. tools, workflows, and business ideas you can act on.

deal flow access

private investment opportunities, early-stage projects, and curated deal flow from my network.

the co-sign

featured in

Fortune
CNBC
Nasdaq
Wall Street Journal
Business of Fashion
Vogue Business
Highsnobiety
Hypebeast
Decrypt
WWD
Fortune
CNBC
Nasdaq
Wall Street Journal
Business of Fashion
Vogue Business
Highsnobiety
Hypebeast
Decrypt
WWD

advised or collaborated with

Adidas
Visa
Prada
Ledger
Mastercard
Adidas
Visa
Prada
Ledger
Mastercard

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angel investments

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years of early calls

the early signal

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weekly cultural observations, trade ideas, ai alpha, and deal flow. from someone with 20 years of receipts.

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